We analyzed traffic from 100 e-commerce brands in July 2025 and uncovered an interesting trend: referral traffic and ChatGPT traffic are linked more closely than many brands might realize.

The correlation between Referral Traffic and ChatGPT Traffic was 0.57, a moderate positive correlation. In practice, this means that when referral traffic increases, ChatGPT traffic often rises too. When referral traffic falls, ChatGPT traffic tends to dip as well.

Why might this connection exist? Referral traffic represents people clicking through from other websites, whether that is publishers, blogs, affiliates, or partnerships. ChatGPT traffic, on the other hand, represents visits driven by conversational AI responses.

A moderate positive correlation indicates that referral strategies and AI search visibility may be working hand in hand. When your brand is mentioned on third party sites, blogs, or partner content, those mentions may also increase the likelihood of showing up in AI-driven results. In other words, strong referral signals could be feeding into AI search visibility in ways we are only beginning to understand.

The key question is whether referral links are actively shaping AI search results. While it is too early to make definitive claims, the data points to a relationship worth watching closely. If AI systems are pulling from a similar pool of content signals that drive referral traffic, then partnerships, affiliate content, and brand mentions across the web could be playing a bigger role in AI discovery than expected.

With ThoughtMetric, you can directly compare referral traffic with ChatGPT traffic inside the same dashboard. If you increase referral campaigns, you can see in real time whether ChatGPT traffic rises alongside it. Instead of guessing, you get the opportunity to test the relationship for your own brand and uncover whether referral activity is contributing to AI search visibility.

By tracking these channels side by side, you gain clarity on how today’s evolving traffic sources connect and where to focus your marketing investments.

Book a demo with ThoughtMetric to see how your referral efforts may be influencing AI search traffic.

What does a correlation of 0.57 mean?
It indicates a moderate positive relationship between referral traffic and ChatGPT traffic. As one goes up, the other often increases as well, but it is not a perfect one-to-one relationship.

Does correlation mean referral traffic causes ChatGPT traffic?
Not necessarily. Correlation shows that the two move together, but it does not prove one is directly causing the other. It is still worth testing for your own brand.

Why does this matter for e-commerce brands?
If referral traffic is influencing visibility in AI-driven search results, then partnerships, affiliates, and mentions on external sites could be more valuable than previously thought.

Can ThoughtMetric track both referral and ChatGPT traffic?
Yes. Both are tracked as channels in ThoughtMetric, allowing you to analyze them side by side and see how they trend together over time.